Alerts
Core access

Calibration

Brier score and probability discipline as a first-class performance layer. Personal calibration history requires an active Core plan; values shown are sample illustrative data.

Sample illustrative calibration data only
Brier score

0.184 Grade C

Sample user is roughly platform average and slightly overconfident above 70% probability.

Calibration curveSample illustrative chart
Brier trend over timeSample illustrative chart
Platform percentile58th

Percentile view planned after enough beta calibration history is available.

Insight

Overconfidence

Sample high-probability forecasts are resolving below expected frequency.

Sample illustrative table
CategoryBrierGradeResolvedPattern
Macro0.162B42Improving
Crypto0.193C31Volatile
Sports0.227D18Low sample
Methodology disclosure

BrierIQ treats calibration as probability quality, not simply directional accuracy. Lower Brier scores indicate smaller squared error against resolved outcomes.