Tool
Brier Calculator
Paste a market URL, use live lookup when available, or enter manual probability to compare calibration scenarios.
Calibration result
Compare the live lookup, manual, or sample market view with your own forecast and see how the calibration scenarios line up.
Market
64%
You
68%
Difference
+4 pp
If YES resolves
Brier 0.102
Scenario score
If NO resolves
Brier 0.462
Scenario score
Current scenario
Good calibration
Brier score: 0.102
Market summary
| Market title | Bitcoin price above threshold |
| Ticker | KXBTCD-26APR3018 |
| Status | Unresolved |
| Market probability | 64% |
| Close time | |
| Market source | user-provided Kalshi URL |
Save forecast history
Core members can save forecasts and track calibration over time.
View probability history
What is a Brier score?
- A Brier score measures how close a probability forecast is to the final outcome.
- Smaller error means better calibration.
- A forecast can have a solid win rate and still be poorly calibrated if the probabilities are too aggressive.
- This view helps you compare the market probability with your own forecast before the outcome is known.
BrierIQ provides informational analytics only. This tool does not provide recommendations, execution, or market links.